A rock and a hard place

In light of the current crisis, I wondered how much oil was left in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The maximum authorized capacity across the four Gulf Coast underground salt caverns is 714 million barrels.

Currently it holds approximately 384 million barrels of crude oil, which is about 54% full. This level sits near multi-decade lows following a massive 172-million-barrel emergency exchange initiated by the Trump administration in March to stabilize global energy markets amid supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Despite the low inventory, the U.S. holds over 120 days of net import protection, surpassing the International Energy Agency’s required 90-day minimum. This is largely because the U.S. is the world's leading oil producer and a net exporter of crude and petroleum products.

Since the place is so vital, I’ve also been wondering how the Strait ofHormuz was named.It is most widely believed to be named after Ahura Mazda, the supreme god of wisdom, light, and order in the ancient Persian religion of Zoroastrianism.

An alternative theory is that the name may have evolved from local dialects of southern Iran translating roughly to the “Passage of the Palm Groves.”

I think we’d all agree that the U.S. is between a rock and a hard place in the Strait of Hormuz, since it means facing a dilemma where you must choose between two equally difficult, unpleasant, or dangerous options.

So where does that phrase come from?

The earliest recorded use appears in a 1915 mining journal from Arizona describing a labor dispute where workers faced low wages on one side (the hard place) and unemployment on the other (the rock).

While the exact phrase is modern, the concept is ancient. It mirrors the ancient Greek myth of Scylla and Charybdis, where sailors had to navigate a narrow strait between a multi-headed monster (Scylla) and a deadly whirlpool (Charybdis).

The U.S. is caught between allowing Iran to disrupt or fully close the strait, resulting in high inflation and economic shock. Or use the Navy to break the blockade and guarantee safe passage through the narrow, mine-filled waterway.

We’re already experiencing the former. The latter is a tactical nightmare.

Armed intervention forces the military to contend with coastal anti-ship missiles, drone swarms, and hidden underwater mines in highly restrictive waters.

All this to protect shipping routes that primarily feed competitors like China.

Recently, I saw a Brookings Institution expert on PBS express dismay about either option. He said only a ground invasion, which most Americans don’t want, could defeat Iran and keep the oil flowing.

The net result of Trump’s war of choice is that the U.S. has been weakened and bogged down militarily while our enemies prosper.